publicly available forecast data
, we can see what the effect of different Electoral College allocation schemes could have on the 2020 race. You can read
more about the three schemes
at my blog.
Briefly, this is how they work:
the good ole Electoral College we're used to and stuck with for 2020.
allocating the Electoral College votes as closely to the popular vote in each state as possible.
two electoral votes from each state are winner-take-all, and the others are allocated proportionally. Essentially, this is awarding Electoral College votes from the Senate as winner-take-all, and those from the House of Representatives proportionally.
The forecast date covers the full range of fivethirtyeight's forecast, perhaps lagging by 1 day. There are 3
scenarios - Mean, Pro-Incumbent, and Pro-Challenger. These can be interpreted, loosely, relative to the 95%
confidence interval of fivethirtyeight's forecast. The Mean scenario is in the middle, the Pro-Incumbent scenario
is the best outcome for President Trump in the interval, and the Pro-Challenger outcome is the best outcome for Joe
Biden in the interval.
This panel shows the results of past elections using the three allocation schemes. The data was collected from
MIT Election Data + Science Lab.